Continuing the annual tradition ...
4 factors go into my mock draft:
1. My evaluation
2. Local beat writers' assessments on draft morning
3. National writers' prognostications
4. What I want to occur
For an example of #4, see picks #s 10, 15 & 24.
1. Saint Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
- I don't buy the hype, but Spagnuolo & Co. do. They effectively tie their current careers to this pick.
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
- Best player in this draft class; even the Lions can't screw this one up.
3. Tampa Bay Bucs - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
- The Sapp comparisons are a bridge too far, but this is the guy that Raheem Morris will love to have anchoring his Tampa Two.
4. Washington Redskins - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
- Late word seems to be that they like him more than Okung. Also, watch for them to try and make some late action on the quarterbacks (either up for Bradford or down for Clausen).
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
- Repeat of last year's Ty Jackson pick. Pioli by-passes the workout warriors and 'reaches' for a lunch pail guy who fits his scheme perfectly.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
- As always, watch out for Pete Carroll NFL idiocy. This isn't a safe pick, but it's the selection that they have to make.
7. Cleveland Browns - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
- Possibly the biggest play-maker in this draft. When ESPN's cameras pick up drool down Mike Holmgren's face, it won't be from impending dinner; it'll be from having to wait 6 selections to draft this kid.
8. Oakland Raiders - Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
- I typically buy into the rumours that float out of Oakland for one reason: Al Davis doesn't need to smokescreen in order to grab the guys whom he usually drafts (see, B., DH)
9. Buffalo Bills - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
- They pass on Clausen because they anticipate nabbing Tebow by trading into the back-end of Round 1. This pick is step 1 in the Tebow Protection Plan.
10. New York Giants (from JAX) - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
- Smith & Jack the River desperately want to trade down for three reasons: 1) they want more than 7 picks, 2) Weaver doesn't want to pay top 10 money, 3) they don't want to be derided for reaching for Tebow. The Giants make willing partners, as they absolutely love Spiller.
11. Denver Broncos - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
- Pete Prisco thinks he's the best non-QB in this draft. Pete Prisco talked up rookie "TE" from Hofstra Marques Colston as a fantasy sleeper in 2006. I trust Pete Prisco.
12. Miami Dolphins - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
- Flying up draft boards, Williams has established himself as the clear #3 DT this year. Fins may also go DE.
13. San Francisco 49ers - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
- Sure, they need CB & OT, but he may be the answer to the riddle of Alex Smith. He'll likely be around at 17, but GMs don't play games with franchise QBs while on the clock. Either he's franchise and goes at 13 or they pass at 17 as well.
14. Seattle Seahawks - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
- 'Hawks have to replace Kearney; Morgan is the most polished pure DE in this class.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (from JAX via NYG) - Earl Thomas, DB, Texas
- Reid likes his "bigs" in the first round, but he needs help in the secondary after shipping out Sheldon Brown, and gets antsy that SF may take Thomas at 17. Jacksonville continues collecting picks.
16. Tennessee Titans - Brandon Graham, OLB/DE, Michigan
- Titans are targeting 3 pass rushers; with JPP & Morgan gone, this is an easy pick.
17. San Francisco 49ers - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
- First real shocker of the draft (Oakland has lost the capacity to shock); 49ers brass met with him three times (at combine, at his pro day, and hosted at team HQ) and simply can't say no to this kid. The potential value is simply too high.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Joe Haden, CB, Florida
- They can't believe he's still here.
19. Atlanta Falcons - Maurkice Pouncey, C/OG, Florida
- With top 3 pass rushers off the board, Dimitroff looks to solidify other side of the ball.
20. Houston Texans - Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State
- I think this is a reach, but apparently they love this kid down there. If Thomas or Haden slides, look for either to be the pick here, though.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
- Fluid TE gives Palmer an option he's lacked his entire career.
22. New England Patriots - Sergio Kindle, OLB/DE, Texas
- Belichick doesn't want Tully Banta-Cain to lead team in sacks for a second season.
23. Green Bay Packers - Jerry Hughes, OLB/DE, TCU
- Ideal for the rush-LB spot opposite Clay Matthews that Aaron Kampman never could transition to.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (from PHI) - Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
- If this doesn't happen, we may be discussing the Los Angeles Jaguars by 2014.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
- Ozzie seems to be banking on a top-half of the round talent falling, but the closest he gets are Davis & Wilson. Look for him to attempt to trade back, but if forced to stay here he'll go with the defensive tackle/flex end to replace Dwan Edwards.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
- Cards nab the top pure OLB in the draft to replace Dansby.
27. Dallas Cowboys - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
- Also wouldn't be surprised if we saw Bruce Campbell, Saffold or Charles Brown here. A wealth of OTs remain on the board for Jerry; ultimately Davis possesses the most potential. He could have been a top five pick in 2011.
28. San Diego Chargers - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
- With Odrick off the board at a need position, Wilson is the best player available.
29. New York Jets - Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
- Tannenbaum & Ryan hated to see Wilson get plucked just in front of them, so they go with the local kid over Kareem Jackson. Could also be a landing spot for Taylor Mays.
30. Minnesota Vikings - Brian Price, DT, UCLA
- Sheppard signing backs Vikings out of the must-draft-a-CB corner. Price should provide immediate rotational flexibility along the interior of the defensive line.
31. Indianapolis Colts - Roger Saffold, OT, Indiana
- Polian always selects guys whom other GMs have pegged as 2nd-3rd rounders; unfortunately, he also usually hits on them. This is no different (except hopefully the last part).
32. New Orleans Saints - Daryl Washington, OLB, TCU
- Word out of Louisianna is that they're really high on this kid; he should be able to step in and replace Fujita immediately.